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Speculative Scenarios

This is the best of times, and

this is the worst of times.

Best of times for speculation.

Worst of times for forecasting.

Let us speculate.

A Democrat Sweep.

Just imagine. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden at the helms?

Pass a $2.2 Trillion Covid-19 relief bill. Pass a More Affordable Health Care Act (MAHA).

Give money to all the State and Local Governments.

Fully subsidize Covid-19 Vaccines.

Relief money to small businesses, poor and elderly, Sanctuary cities and undocumented immigrants.

Increase the minimum wage throughout the country.

Increase taxes.

Statehoods for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.

Fund the U.S. Postal Service.

Happy days are here again. So are inflation, high taxation and economic stagnation.

Forecast-Probability 50%

A 2 to 1 Split.

Democrats control Congress and Presidency

Republicans retain Senate.

Back to Deadlock. More noise, more Partisanship, less action.

Forecast-Probability 30%

A 1 to 2 Split

Incumbent President reelected. God forbid!

Democrats control Congress and Senate.

Congress proposes, Senate endorses and President Vetoes all legislation.

Impeachment Round 2, more polarization, more rhetoric.

Forecast-Probability 10%

A Reverse 2 to 1 Split

Incumbent President reelected.

Senate controlled by Republicans.

Democrats retain control of the Congress.

More conservative judges appointed.

Business as usual. Erratic leadership continues.

Haven't we seen this movie before?

Forecast-Probability 10%

My preferred Scenario

All incumbents to Congress, Senate and Presidency lose

Forecast-Probability 0%

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